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Over here. (UK residents only, unfortunately, closes at 2359 tomorrow, May 31 2015)

the task is simple.

choose a number between 0 and 100 and suply a short justification for your choice.

the winner is the person whose number is closest to two-thirds of the average of all the entries.

for example, three entries are submitted : 20, 30 and 40. the average is then 30 and the winning entry is 20 being exactly two-thirds of the average.

in the event of a tie, the prize will go to the person who submits the best justification. professor thaler's decision is final.

prize is dom reilly bag - lightweight, elegant and handcrafted.

send your guess to ThalerChallenge@ft.com


So, who's feeling sufficiently mathematically minded? =:D
 
 
 
 
 
 
I wonder what the tie break criteria will be, probably a random drawing. You get 300-400 entries or more and you're going to have lots of duplicates on numbers, though possibly not all numbers covered.

Have you heard of a party game where if you have 40 people or so in a room that it's good odds that there are two people born on the same day? I was at a party in Tempe, AZ one day with a bunch of friends when a former boss tried it. It failed utterly. I recently had the same experience!

I was doing a student data load of 680 kids, and no one had my birthday! It finally hit when I loaded the supplemental data of another 300 kids, finally one had my birthday.

I found that a bit interesting.
20, as I think people will read the example and gravitate towards 30, thinking that will be the most chosen number, making 20 the win point.